#DDIP response to Supreme Court ruling over #Brexit
Well the Supreme Court announced their decision today (24/01/2017) on the Government v Gina Millar Brexit case and I have to say after some thought I do agree with their conclusion. The main problem they had to overcome was, would Invoking Article 50 have any kind of effect on the people, be it detrimental or otherwise. As they concluded that it would, then there really was no other option but to side with Gina Millar and insist that this needed to go before parliament. Some will be shouting that they have gone against the people, however the truth of the matter is, they most certainly would have gone against the people if they had set a precedent in this case that could lead to governments doing whatever they liked without first consulting parliament on issues that changed constitutional law. I believe it was because of that, that they came to the conclusion they did. Hard for some to swallow I know but they did come to the right decision in respect of the people, in regards to written law and that is what the Supreme Court is there for. Will it make any real difference to what is happening with Brexit? I personally do not think it will.
So what actually took place today with the Supreme Court ruling? They made the decision that parliament must have a vote on the invoking of Article 50. Now consider this for a moment, there are 648 MPs in Parliament (2 empty seats) and they will each get a vote on the triggering of Article 50. Now there happens to be 329 Conservatives who will undoubtedly vote in favour of the triggering of Article 50 (Ken Clarke being the exception of course) and that in itself is enough to secure a majority vote but there are also many other MPs who will also vote in favour of it, so it really is a no brainer to think it will not get past parliament. However, 517 MPs voted in favour of the EU Referendum Bill and we will be watching closely to see if any of those 517 do a U-Turn and vote against the decision made by the people, they will most certainly be named and shamed for doing so. Then we have the Lords, there are actually 825 of them now, however I have no doubts whatsoever that they will be aware that voting against the will of the people will only ever lead to their own demise, so I think their own self preservation will mean that they will pass the invoking of Article 50.
I expect this will all be done in time to invoke Article 50 before the end of March 2017, which has been the Tory Timetable all along and I doubt they were ever overly bothered with what the supreme court decision turned out to be. In reality they should have been expecting to lose that case and should have a very short Act written up ready, the shorter the Act the fewer amendments can be made. I also think they don’t really care too much what the EU offers either because they want the full two years and then exit with no deal. This will then make it easy for them to force a call of no confidence and force an early general election on May 2nd 2019 to coincide with the local elections once again and before the EU Elections, then they will most likely win a landslide victory in both for being the party that took Britain out of the EU. Some will vote for them because they are pleased with Brexit, others because they want to see them fail. The Tories do seem to be playing a far smarter game than the others in all of this.
Two things I did find rather amusing whilst watching the live report on the Supreme Court decision.Firstly, this means that we the people got one vote on Brexit on June 23rd and our elected representatives get three. They voted for the EU Referendum Bill which gave people the mandate to decide, they voted with us all on June 23rd and now they get a third vote on the invoking of Article 50.
The other thing was while listening to the people outside the courts, John Shaw of Fair Deal for Expats thanked their legal team of HENDERSON CHAMBERS…. Matthew Richardson who was UKIP Party Secretary is a barrister for HENDERSON CHAMBERS…. Nothing untoward there but I did find that amusing.
I have no doubts whatsoever that Article 50 will be invoked by the end of March 2017, so when you see Remoaners shouting that Gina Millar has blocked Brexit, just leave them to it because it will not be long before they realise just how wrong they have been (Yet again) and that is always fun to see.